Global PV Module Demand Forecast: 240GW in 2022 Amid Supply Constraints

August 04, 2022

The global photovoltaic (PV) module market is projected to reach 240GW in demand for 2022. During the first half of the year, robust distributed PV demand sustained momentum in China, while international markets showed strong uptake according to Chinese customs data. From January to May, China exported 63GW of PV modules worldwide – triple the volume of the same period in 2021.

Stronger‑than‑expected off‑season demand worsened the existing polysilicon shortage in H1 2022, driving sustained price increases. By the end of June, polysilicon prices reached RMB 270/kg with no sign of stabilization, keeping module prices at elevated levels.

Regional breakdown (Jan–May):

Europe imported 33GW of Chinese modules, accounting for >50% of China's total module exports.

India imported >8GW of modules plus ~2GW of cells (Jan–Mar) for stockpiling ahead of April's Basic Customs Duty (BCD). After BCD implementation, monthly exports fell to <100MW (April–May).

Brazil imported >7GW of Chinese modules, reflecting significantly stronger demand than in previous periods.

Market dynamics:

Southeast Asian manufacturers gained an advantage with the 24‑month suspension of U.S. tariffs. Consequently, non‑Chinese market demand is projected to exceed 150GW this year.

H2 2022 outlook:

Demand strength will persist through year‑end:

Europe and China enter peak installation seasons.
U.S. demand is expected to rebound after the tariff suspension.
InfoLink forecasts quarterly demand growth through 2022, peaking in Q4.

Long‑term projections:

Accelerated energy transition in China, Europe, and the U.S. will drive global demand growth. Annual growth rates are projected at 30% for 2022 (up from 26% in 2021), with module demand exceeding 300GW by 2025.

Market segment shift:

While total demand expands, project type distribution is evolving:

Chinese policy incentives have boosted distributed PV deployment.

European markets show significantly growing distributed PV adoption, now representing an increased market share.