Global Solar to Hit Record 250GW in 2023: China Enters 100GW Era

Wood Mackenzie’s global PV research team recently released its Global PV Market Outlook: Q1 2023, projecting record global installations exceeding 250 GWdc in 2023 – a 25% year‑over‑year increase.

China will reinforce its global leadership, adding over 110 GWdc of new capacity (40% of global total). During the 14th Five‑Year Plan, China’s annual installations will consistently surpass 100 GWdc, marking its entry into the “100 GW era”. Key drivers include supply chain expansion, falling module prices, and full grid‑connection of first‑phase wind‑PV bases. Centralized PV installations are expected to exceed 52 GWdc.

However, distributed PV faces challenges. While nationwide promotion policies continue, risks exposed in high‑capacity provinces (Shandong, Hebei) – such as grid curtailment and ancillary service costs – may slow investment and cause a decline in 2023 distributed installations.

International growth hinges on regulatory support: the US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) ($369 billion for clean energy) and the EU REPowerEU (750 GWdc target by 2030). Germany plans tax credits for PV/wind/grid. Nevertheless, grid bottlenecks threaten mature European markets (notably the Netherlands).

Wood Mackenzie projects 6% average annual growth for global PV installations from 2022‑2032, with North America surpassing Europe’s annual share by 2028. In Latin America, Chile faces grid delays causing renewable underutilization; the National Energy Commission has launched transmission tenders and market reforms. Major markets like Brazil face similar infrastructure challenges.